28 September 2006

US Intelligence Analysts Agree: Time for a Policy Shift

No salient being can accuse the Associated Press of political bias ...

Thus, this analysis offered by Katherine Shrader can easily be viewed as telling it like it is:

National Intelligence Estimates are notorious for being watered down, partly because analysts spread across 16 different spy agencies often have difficulty settling on just the right words.

That's what makes the tough language in this week's terrorism analysis all the more striking. And it has left many puzzling over why the White House decided to release it.

To almost any reader, the assessment of trends in global terror for the next five years looks grim. It warns that most jihadist groups "will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks" on "soft targets." It cautions that extremists still seek chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons. And it contemplates whether other types of leftist or separatist groups, such as anti-globalism factions, could adopt terrorist methods.

One former insider sees even more. Robert Hutchings, who headed the National Intelligence Council when the estimate was launched in 2004, called the document "a very severe indictment of, not just the administration, but where we as a country have found ourselves five years after 9/11."

"It says the jihad is spreading, expanding and intensifying," said Hutchings, who left the council in early 2005 and is now at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School.

Intelligence analysts are trained to avoid policy judgments that would entwine them in politics. But Hutchings noted that the declassified key judgments go beyond normal bounds to make the point that U.S. strategy must do more than killing or capturing terrorists and pressuring the governments that harbor them.

To craft this estimate, he said, the council reached beyond clandestine sources and held conferences with terror experts in the U.S. and Europe, as well as local Muslim communities, including clerics.

The key, Hutchings said, is that the United States needs to address more vigorously the conflicts that jihadists have successfully exploited.

"The administration will say that is what they are doing, but that is not true," said Hutchings, who has not seen the classified 30-page document, but has read the three pages released publicly on Tuesday.

"We are back to paying no attention to Palestine because we don't like Hamas," he said. On Lebanon, "by encouraging Israel to extend its attacks, we have helped destabilize that country."

"We think we can isolate Iran and are surprised when no one joins us," he said.

White House Press Secretary Tony Snow ridiculed Hutchings' remarks, and those of former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who said in Little Rock, Ark., Wednesday that the Bush foreign policy is a "mess" because the administration is distracted by Iraq from other problems.

"Surely they jest," Snow said in an e-mail. "In terms of the accuracy and aptness of their criticisms, they are batting a perfect .000."

Others said the intelligence judgments in the report cut both ways.

"The good news is that the government has seriously bloodied al-Qaida, and it has dismantled its infrastructure," said John Brennan, former head of the National Counterterrorism Center. "The bad news: As a result of the situation in Iraq and political issues in the Middle East, the forces of Islamic extremism have increased."

Bush said the U.S. was winning the war on terror as recently as Sept. 7, in a speech in Atlanta. "Five years after Sept. 11, 2001, America is safer -- and America is winning the war on terror," he said then.

At a White House news briefing Wednesday, Snow found himself on the defensive as reporters pressed him for evidence that the United States is, in fact, safer.

Snow noted that U.S. territory has not been attacked since 9/11 and the government's anti-terror stance is much more aggressive now than before. He pointed out that intelligence agencies are being built up to make up for cuts in the 1990s at the end of the Cold War.

Without offering specifics, he said that while there are more jihadists in the world, al-Qaida's "operational capability" has been hurt by the global war on terror led by the United States.

Speaking broadly, he said, the intelligence estimate makes the point that the Bush administration has been making for years: Iraq is key to the war on terror.

"Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves and be perceived to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight," he said, quoting from the estimate.

Democrats cited the document as evidence the government needs changes in political leadership with the Nov. 7 elections. They continued their push Wednesday for release of the rest of the report.

"The American people deserve the full story, not those parts of it that the Bush administration selects," said Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass.

Snow rejected that idea, saying it could put lives and intelligence capabilities at risk. And he warned that leaked intelligence estimates will make analysts less likely to make hard calls and then put them on paper.

26 September 2006

US Forces in Iraq: Still Sleeker, Still Weaker

I would have thought a key lesson learned in the American invasion of Iraq was that a 'streamlined' strike force was effective for the first wave of attack, but was woefully lacking for maintaining a presence ...

I guess I was wrong. Then again, maybe it isn't me. Judging by this report filed by Alec Russell, the London Daily Telegraph's man in Washington DC, it isn't:

Relations between the American military and Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, plunged to a new low yesterday over claims by the head of the US army that the Pentagon's budget proposals would leave his forces billions of dollars short of their needs.

In an unprecedented move that underlines the dire state of relations between the uniformed military and their civilian leaders, Gen Peter Schoomaker, the army's chief of staff, has refused to submit his 2008 budget to the Pentagon.

He made his protest after the White House and Congress ordered swinging cuts to the army's requests. It reflects a growing sense among generals that their forces are being stretched to their limits by their commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan without receiving adequate funding to fulfil them.

Traditionally, budgetary disputes are resolved in negotiations between the Pentagon and Congress. But Gen Schoomaker escalated the dispute into a confrontation with Mr Rumsfeld by ignoring the budget deadline of Aug 15.

"This is unusual," a senior Pentagon official involved in the budget discussions told the Los Angeles Times. "But hell, we're in unusual times."

Gen Schoomaker was looking for $138.8 billion (£73 billion) in 2008, nearly $25 billion (£13 billion) above the limits set by Mr Rumsfeld, the newspaper said.

Most of the financing of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has come from emergency spending Bills, leaving the annual defence budget to pay for personnel costs and weapons procurement.

But the army argues that its share of the regular budget is insufficient to fund its role in the fight against terrorism, and in particular the high costs of replacing and repairing equipment used in Iraq.

Gen Schoomaker recently testified to Congress that he would need an extra $17 billion next year to pay for the repair of hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles. "There is no sense in us submitting a budget that we can't execute," he said.

Mr Rumsfeld has set up a task force to investigate the funding dispute. But even if he backs down, the army will almost certainly then face a fight with the White House and Congress.

A Pentagon spokesman played down the row, arguing that a delay in the budget was not surprising given that it came against the backdrop of the recent four-yearly defence review.

But Mr Rumsfeld's critics seized on the revelation of the stand-off to press home their argument that the armed forces are close to breaking point.

Col Larry Wilkerson, who was the chief of staff to Colin Powell, the secretary of state in President George W Bush's first term, said his own estimates were that the army was between $35 billion and $60 billion short of its needs.

"You certainly run out of money fast," he told The Daily Telegraph, adding that fewer helicopters were flying in Iraq and Afghanistan than a year ago because the "costs are unbelievable". Morale in the military "is as low as they've ever seen it", he added.

The strains on manpower were further evident when it emerged that the army had extended the tours of about 4,000 soldiers for several more weeks in Iraq's troubled Anbar province.

Mr Rumsfeld did not comment on the showdown with Gen Schoomaker.

Military analysts suggested that the fact that the stand-off had been leaked was the latest sign that soldiers and officials were trying to exonerate themselves over the situation in Iraq.

"If victory has a thousand fathers, defeat is a noisy orphan," said James Pinkerton, a military analyst at the New America Foundation think-tank. "The generals know Rumsfeld is the enemy and they hope to get a better deal out of his successor."

25 September 2006

Repeating History: False Premises, Real Wars

Journalist Judith Coburn has covered war and its aftermath in Indochina, Central America, and the Middle East for the Village Voice, Pacifica Radio, the Far Eastern Economic Review, Mother Jones, the Los Angeles Times, the New York Times, and the San Francisco Chronicle, among others. She co-anchored (with David Gelber) Pacifica Radio's live, gavel-to-gavel coverage of the Watergate hearings.

Here is her assessment of the domestic effects as a result of America's latest war in relation to its debacle in Viet Nam:

On July 31, 1973, while the Vietnam war was still being fought, Representative Robert Drinan, a Massachusetts Democrat, introduced the first impeachment resolution against President Richard Nixon. One of the grounds for indictment Drinan proposed was the secret bombing of Cambodia, ordered by the President. To Drinan, this was a crime at least as great as the domestic scandals which had already come to be known as "Watergate." The fourteen months of massive B-52 "carpet bombings," which killed tens of thousands of Cambodian villagers and an unknown number of Vietnamese communist soldiers in border sanctuaries, were run outside the military's chain of command. They were also kept completely secret from Congress and the public (until exposed by New York Times reporter William Beecher). In recently released transcripts of telephone conversations between Nixon and his closest aides, the President ordered "a massive bombing campaign in Cambodia [using] anything that flies on anything that moves." (The transcript then records an unintelligible comment that "sounded like [General Alexander] Haig laughing.")

The secret bombing of Cambodia involved the same abuse of power and political manipulation of government agencies as Watergate, but only a few Congressional representatives like John Conyers, Elizabeth Holtzman, and Edward Mezvinsky supported Drinan's Cambodia article, which was soundly defeated by the House impeachment committee 26-12.

There are many myths about Watergate -- among them that Woodward and Bernstein rode into Dodge and rescued the republic all by themselves, that the impeachment of Richard Nixon saved American constitutional democracy from destruction, and that the grounds on which Nixon was impeached were a fair reflection of what he and "all the President's men" had actually done. In American mythology, "the system worked."

To most Americans, the slaughter of millions of Cambodians, Vietnamese, and Lao, as well as the destruction of their countries, seem unrelated to "Watergate." Henry Kissinger, one of the architects of the secret bombing of Cambodia, who had ordered his own dissenting staffers and several journalists illegally wiretapped to stop leaks, escaped indictment and would soon be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Few now remember that it was Indochina, not the burglary of Democratic National Committee headquarters at the Watergate Complex that really set Watergate, the scandal, in motion and led to a pattern of Presidential conduct which seems eerily familiar today. In his 1974 book, Time of Illusion, Jonathan Schell wrote of "the distortions in the conduct of the presidency which deformed national politics in the Vietnam years -- the isolation from reality, the rage against political opposition, the hunger for unconstitutional power, the conspiratorial mindedness, the bent for repressive action." He concluded that three presidents "consistently sacrificed the welfare of the nation at home to what they saw as the demands of foreign affairs."

To recast an infamous Vietnam slogan: They had to destroy American democracy at home in order to save the world for democracy.

Saving the System in the Name of National Security

It would seem little has changed. Rather than "saving the system," Watergate only slowed for a brief period the increasing concentration of power in the White House and the Pentagon, not to speak of its abuse after Ronald Reagan came to power in the name of national security. The now nearly forgotten Iran-Contra scandal during Reagan's reign revealed in a stark way the illegal lengths to which that administration's anti-communist ideologues were willing to go to defy Congress. Using every stealth method at their command, top Reagan officials defied and effectively nullified a Congressional ban on aid to the "Contras," right-wing Nicaraguans who were determined to overthrow the leftist Sandinistas then in power in their country. White House, CIA, State Department, and Pentagon officials schemed to pass along to the Contras profits from the illegal sale of high-tech arms to the fundamentalist Muslim regime of Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran. (Iran was in a desperate war with Saddam Hussein's Iraq, then officially supported by the Reagan Administration.)

Now, once again, ideologues -- this time formerly anti-communist neoconservatives -- have taken America into another foreign war, whose pretext was as flimsy as the fabricated North Vietnamese attack on American destroyers in the Tonkin Gulf that led to Lyndon Johnson's decision to send combat troops to Vietnam. This latest war is being run by an administration at least as isolated, enraged, obsessed with secrecy, and abusive of power as Richard Nixon's. Americans are as obsessed by the relatively minuscule number of American casualties in Iraq as they were by the 58,000 Americans who died in Vietnam and just as blind to the suffering of Iraqis as they were to the millions of Indochinese who died.

Just as during Watergate and Iran-Contragate, the machinations of Beltway leakers -- in this case in the Plame affair -- carry more weight politically than life-and-death issues like the legalization of torture, the creation of secret, offshore CIA "black" prisons, the administration's campaign to suspend the constitutional rights of defendants and the protections of the Geneva Conventions, not to speak of the administration's drive to create a presidency of unfettered power. Revelations of war crimes by American GIs and CIA operatives have been quickly dismissed by picking a few low-ranking scapegoats like Lyndie England while higher ups go unpunished, just as the chain of responsibility for the My Lai massacres in Vietnam stopped with Lt. William Calley. Secret agent Valerie Plame in her Jackie O shades, posing for Vanity Fair with her whistleblowing husband Joe Wilson, becomes the celebrity du jour standing in for Daniel Ellsberg, leaker of the Pentagon Papers, the secret history of the Vietnam war, who was photographed by the radically chic Richard Avedon.

The Genuine Articles

But are things simply the same as in the 1970s (and again the Reagan era) or is our present situation actually "worse than Watergate," as former Nixon White House counsel John Dean, who turned on the President and his comrades to save himself, argued in his prescient 2004 book of that title?

The articles of impeachment Congress eventually framed to indict Richard Nixon make interesting reading these days. The first article had at its heart the Watergate break-in and the elaborate cover-up that followed, including "making false or misleading statements to lawfully authorized investigative officers and employees of the United States," "endeavoring to misuse the Central Intelligence Agency, an agency of the United States," and "making or causing to be made false or misleading public statements for the purpose of deceiving the people of the United States into believing that a through and complete investigation had been conducted with respect to allegations of misconduct on the part of personnel of the executive branch of the United States..."

Article 2 was a catch-all indictment of all the violations of Americans' rights ordered by the White House, including the political use of the IRS, CIA, Secret Service, Justice Department, and FBI as well as wiretapping, surveillance, and burglaries against those on President Nixon's notorious "enemies list." In all such acts, "national security" was the justification given.

The facts may be different, but do the charges themselves sound familiar?

Article 3 concerned the White House's refusal to honor Congressional subpoenas for the infamous tapes secretly recorded by the President and various papers relevant to the Watergate investigation. "In refusing to produce these papers and things Richard M. Nixon, substituting his judgment as to what materials were necessary for the inquiry, interposed the powers of the Presidency against the...House of Representatives."

No one would expect history simply to repeat itself, especially since memories of Watergate (and myths about it) have affected presidential actions ever since. Ronald Reagan and his handlers, faced with Iran/Contragate, certainly remembered how Nixon's cover-up came to seem more egregious than the actions it sought to conceal. Reagan immediately fired Oliver North, the National Security Council staffer who masterminded the scheme, and sent his National Security Adviser Admiral John M. Poindexter packing (if only for a trip back to the Navy). He then appointed the Tower Commission and a special prosecutor to investigate, appearing to cooperate with Congressional investigations even while undermining them. In his comprehensive and fascinating book, The Wars of Watergate, historian Stanley I. Kutler points out how much cleverer the Reaganites were than Nixon's men in leaving no documents or tapes to be seized.

George W. Bush and his associates must have remarkably short memories. While he has been careful to mouth words of cooperation in the Plamegate case, he has depended on the Republican control of Congress to stonewall on just about every egregious misdeed that has seen the light of day, blocking public hearings into Abu Ghraib, the treatment of prisoners at Guantanamo, the CIA secret prison system, faux intelligence on Iraq, and Plamegate itself.

That felicitous Watergate phrase "high crimes and misdemeanors" and the word "impeachment" are now heard in circles on the left, with the legal grounds for impeachment being explored by lawyers like Elizabeth de la Vega in the Nation magazine and at Tomdispatch. But what special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald may still lack to crack open the case for a White House-led conspiracy to manipulate intelligence, destroy the Wilsons, and get back at the CIA is a whistleblower like John ("there's a cancer on the Presidency") Dean or even Jeb Magruder, the top Republican campaign aide who helped plan the Watergate break-in and cover-up, only to finally cop a plea. Now that I. Lewis Libby and New York Times reporter Judy Miller, thick as thieves -- "entanglement" was the word that paper's Executive Editor Bill Keller used -- before the vice-presidential chief of staff's indictment, have been designated the fall folks in Plamegate and the administration's rush to war in Iraq, the question is: Could resentment for shouldering the blame alone (so far) lead Libby to disloyal testimony against his higher-ups as happened in Watergate?

Unlike in the Watergate years, however, most of the legal action that might just dent the Bush administration's imperial armor is happening abroad. Just as the most revelatory reports about American abuses of power and war-making -- from the Italian newspaper La Repubblica's three-part series on the yellowcake forgery to the recent Italian TV film on the American use of white phosphorus against civilians in Falluja -- have surfaced abroad, so the only real court actions against American abuses of power are taking place in Europe. There, an Italian court has indicted CIA agents for "extraordinary rendition" kidnapping operations on the streets of Milan. Spanish courts -- which sought to try Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet for torture -- are now pursuing American violations of national sovereignty because CIA planes ferrying detainees to secret "black sites" used airports in the Azores and the Canary Islands. Both the United Nations and the European Union are investigating the CIA use of secret European prisons and airfields in their "rendition" operations. If Congress won't act to punish Bush Administration officials who enacted a torture policy, perhaps the Europeans will.

Plamegate, after all, is no more just an odious but simple case of Beltway character assassination than the plumbers' break-in at Democratic Party headquarters was just a burglary. Famed Watergate reporter Carl Bernstein now argues that just as the Watergate break-in was the key that opened a strongbox of ugly facts about the Nixon Administration's unbridled abuse of power, so might the Plame affair break open the Bush Administration's imperial modus operandi.

The Politics of Impeachment and the One-Party State

Will Plamegate lead to the collapse of the Bush presidency or even impeachment? These are, in the end, matters less of legality than politics, consciousness, and conscience. A Republican-dominated Congress impeached President Bill Clinton for lying to a grand jury about sex with a White House intern, while President Bush remains free even from hearings, let alone legal action, on his administration's many Watergate-like excesses. Now that's politics!

What makes the Plame affair so odd, however, is this: Unlike Watergate or the Iran-Contra revelations, it doesn't really tell us anything we didn't know (or at least that we couldn't have known) before the Iraq War was launched. The neoconservatives' long-standing plans to invade Iraq, the administration's blanket policy of secrecy and the lies it told Congress and the public, the political manipulation of the intelligence community including the CIA, FBI, and the military -- all rivaling in scope any similar Nixonian schemes-- were in plain sight for those who cared to look during the run-up to the war. Even the Downing Street memo, the now infamous secret minutes of a meeting of Prime Minister Tony Blair's senior foreign policy and security officials, describing the White House's commitment to invade Iraq at a time when it was telling Americans it had no plans to do so, had little, if anything, new in it. (At least, its exposure in the British press, like the latest reporting on Plame affair revelations, helped chip away at what had once been a well-armored administration.)

In fact, one of the most revelatory pieces of reporting on the whole pre- and post-invasion period could be found not in the American press but in an extraordinary three-part series in the leftist Italian newspaper La Repubblica, articles which have received only a few skeptical references buried in the back pages of our major papers (while being headline news in the on-line world of political websites and blogs). The Italian investigative reporters do tell us something new -- exactly how two of the key administration arguments for war in Iraq were concocted and known to be bogus by Italian intelligence and discredited by the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency and State Department officials until Vice President Cheney pounded CIA Director George Tenet and Secretary of State Colin Powell into submission.

According to La Repubblica, the yellowcake story and the forged documents that were its source were cooked up by a bottom-feeding double agent who needed the money. (He's Plamegate's most colorful character, rivaling G. Gordon Liddy, Watergate's handlebar-mustachioed, gun-loving CIA operative.) And Italian intelligence knew that the infamous aluminum tubes purchased by Saddam Hussein's regime were for rockets, not centrifuges in a nuclear-weapons program, because the Italian military had once equipped the Iraqis with that make of rocket.

High-level Italian spies are quoted in the piece as being well aware that they needed to hook up with the rogue Cheney/ Rumsfeld back-channel intelligence operation -- running counter to CIA analysis -- in order to keep their hand in with the White House. (Where is this era's James McCord, the Watergate burglar and CIA loyalist who told all because he feared the White House sought political control over the CIA?) Pre-war, the aluminum tubes were also roundly dismissed as evidence for an Iraqi nuclear weapons program by the UN's nuclear-weapons inspectors as well as recent Nobel Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Ex-Ambassador Wilson was only the last in a long line to discredit Cheney's zealotry about Saddam's nonexistent nuclear program.

As for the Bush Administration's insistence that Saddam had chemical and biological weapons, last week the Los Angeles Times, in a stunning exposé, documented how German intelligence had repeatedly warned the CIA that an Iraqi defector dubbed "Curveball," who was the sole source for these claims, was a con artist who cooked up his story to get a German visa. But the CIA went right ahead, funneling "Curveball's" phony info into Secretary of State Colin Powell's UN rush-to-war speech and other presidential and vice-presidential saber-rattlings.

Even the weak-kneed Senate Intelligence Committee has revealed how analysts at the Defense Intelligence Agency and the CIA among others, discredited the administration's assertions that al-Qaeda operatives were in league with the Iraqis and gave the infamous Chalabi network of defectors (the main source for Judy Miller's "scoops") zero marks for credibility.

It's often forgotten how long it took for Watergate to get traction as a political juggernaut. The initial Washington Post reports by Woodward and Bernstein on the Watergate burglary were printed before the 1972 election and yet Nixon was reelected. (The two reporters had not then traced Liddy, McCord, and the other Nixon "plumbers" back to the Committee to Reelect the President and the White House). Three decades later, much more was known about the Bush administration's excesses before the 2004 election. But times are very different. The young investigative reporter of Watergate morphed over those three decades into insider icon Bob Woodward, the "stenographer for the White House" who managed not to report on, no less mention to his editors, his all-too-close relationship to the Plame affair, while publicly disparaging its importance.

In the early seventies, however skeptical Americans were about Washington after more than eight years of the war in Vietnam under both Democratic and Republican war-makers, some hope of political change still smoldered. Cold War paranoia was ebbing, the horrors of 9/11 yet unimagined. Government was still a bipartisan concept; corporate money had yet to completely dominate elections; the media was still diverse, independent of the Republican attack machine, and skeptical of the powers-that-be. It was still imaginable that classic American checks and balances might right the ship of state.

Now, when the President waves the 9/ll voodoo doll, Congress, the media, and the public flinch. With both houses of Congress under Republican domination and both parties beholden to corporate America but not voting citizens, there have been no Watergate-style hearings, no impeachment hearings, no public investigations at all of Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib, torture and secret prisons, war profiteering, or the lies told in the rush to war. The Supreme Court is controlled by conservatives unblinkingly willing to put into the presidency a man whose party may well have stolen elections in Florida and Ohio.

We have no Sen. Sam Ervin, the avuncular constitutionalist and Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee whose Watergate hearings educated Americans about the uses and abuses of government; no Rep. Peter Rodino, who ably and calmly chaired the House impeachment inquiry; not even a Republican like Sen. Howard Baker, who began by defending the White House and came to understand during the Watergate hearings that loyalty to country was more important than the survival of a corrupt president. Congressional critics have no forum like the Watergate hearings and are dependent on the jaded Beltway media to get the word out. But in recent weeks, moderate Republicans and John McCain, one of the few politicians still willing to fight for those quaint, old-fashioned things called "principles," are gaining traction. And liberal Democrats have new allies in the antiwar fight, most notably conservative Vietnam veteran Rep. John P. Murtha, who recently leapt over gutless wonders like John Kerry and Hillary Clinton to demand the immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

White House attempts to tar critics with treason have met their match in retired colonel Murtha who sarcastically said he "liked guys who got five deferments and [have] never been there and send people to war and then don't like to hear suggestions about what needs to be done." (During Vietnam, Vice President Cheney received five deferments and never served in the military.)

We now have something close to one-party government in this country, an idea still so fantastic to Americans and their media that the most serious, in depth, and credible exploration of the 2000 and 2004 election fraud by any journalist -- the book Steal This Vote: Dirty Elections and the Rotten History of Democracy in America -- has been done by an Englishman, Andrew Gumbel of the British newspaper The Independent. He's now been joined by American professor Mark Crispin Miller, whose new book Fooled Again: How the Right Stole the 2004 Elections and Why They May Steal the Next One Too (Unless We Stop Them) digs into the subject as well.

And instead of the Woodward/Bernstein team, we have Judy Miller (and the reborn Bob Woodward). Only a tiny handful of reporters at the New York Times, Washington Post and Los Angeles Times (all with sinking circulations), 60 Minutes and almost uniquely the New Yorker's Seymour Hersh have been doing the kind of serious, in-depth investigative journalism that was done by many in the Watergate era. On-line reporters, able to circulate a single story at lightening speed around the world, are fueled by the same obsessive zeal as their age of Watergate print compatriots but have radically less money to support investigations of any sort. As Carl Bernstein pointed out recently in Vanity Fair, the Bush administration, like Nixon's, has succeeded only too well "in making the conduct of the press the issue -- again in wartime with false claims and smears directed at political opponents, reporters, newspapers, magazines and broadcast organizations for supposedly undermining national security." If only the media of our era had actually justified such attacks.

John Dean was indeed right. The Bush Administration's excesses are "worse than Watergate," in part because the power that has congealed in presidential hands is much greater than Nixon's imperial presidency held in the early 1970s. As a result, its zealotry, secrecy, deceit, and abuses of power are more akin to the secret bombing of Cambodia or the Iran-Contra affair -- scandals which did not unseat presidents -- than Watergate itself. In both the bombing of Cambodia and Iran-Contragate, a power-hungry White House kept secret foreign policies that it knew neither Congress, the courts, nor the public would be likely to approve -- even though Americans have traditionally been only too eager to give the White House a blank check on national security. No one was indicted for the secret bombing of Cambodia. In Iran-Contragate, eleven top administration officials, including two national security advisers and an undersecretary of state were finally convicted, but the first President George Bush rushed to pardon four of them as well as Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger (even before he could be indicted). The specter of this resolution of the Libby case recently prompted Democrats and then a group of CIA officials -- to little media attention -- to write the President demanding that he go on record indicating there will be no pardons in the Plame affair. They received no reply.

21 September 2006

Reaping What Is Sown

As if further testament to the obvious was needed, we'll provide it anyway ...

Jim Abrams of the Associated Press pored through CIA documents recently made available and found that even America's best analysts knew that al-Qaeda wasn't a presence in Iraq. Mind you, when upheaval became the imminent by-product of the American invasion, it was only a matter of time before they took the opportunity to expand their influence. It remains the ultimate irony of American policy there:

WASHINGTON -- There's no evidence Saddam Hussein had a relationship with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his Al-Qaida associates, according to a Senate report on prewar intelligence on Iraq. Democrats said the report undercuts President Bush's justification for going to war.

The declassified document being released today by the Senate Intelligence Committee also explores the role that inaccurate information supplied by the anti-Saddam exile group the Iraqi National Congress had in the march to war.

It discloses for the first time an October 2005 CIA assessment that prior to the war Saddam's government "did not have a relationship, harbor, or turn a blind eye toward Zarqawi and his associates."

Bush and other administration officials have said that the presence of Zarqawi in Iraq before the war was evidence of a connection between Saddam's government and al-Qaida. Zarqawi was killed by a U.S. airstrike in June this year.

The long-awaited report, said Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., a member of the committee, is "a devastating indictment of the Bush-Cheney administration's unrelenting, misleading and deceptive attempts" to link Saddam to al-Qaida.

The report, two years in the making, comes out amid a series of Bush speeches stressing that pursuing the military effort in Iraq is crucial to winning the war on terrorism, and two months before that policy will be tested in midterm elections.

"Based on the characterizations we've seen, it's nothing new," White House press secretary Tony Snow said of the report.

"In 2002 and 2003, members of both parties got a good look at the intelligence we had and they came to the very same conclusions about what was going on," Snow said. That was "one of the reasons you had overwhelming majorities in the United States Senate and the House for taking action against Saddam Hussein," he said.

The report deals with two aspects of prewar intelligence -- the role of the Iraqi National Congress and its exile leader Ahmed Chalabi and a comparison of prewar intelligence assessments and postwar findings on weapons of mass destruction and Saddam's links to terrorist groups.

19 September 2006

Gas Pains Subsiding ... Conveniently

As the Longer Life financial columnist, Graeme Irvine, commented earlier, there also happens to be a key election on the horizon in the USA, with the Bush Administration's Republican control of Congress hanging in the balance ...

Kevin G Hall of McClatchy Newspapers files the report that Graeme presaged:

WASHINGTON -- The recent sharp drop in the global price of crude oil could mark the start of a massive sell-off that returns gasoline prices to lows not seen since the late 1990s -- perhaps as low as $1.15 a gallon.

"All the hurricane flags are flying" in oil markets, said Philip Verleger, a noted energy consultant who was a lone voice several years ago in warning that oil prices would soar. Now, he says, they appear to be poised for a dramatic plunge.

Crude-oil prices have fallen about $14, or roughly 17 percent, from their July 14 peak of $78.40. After falling seven straight days, they rose slightly Wednesday in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, to $63.97, partly in reaction to a government report showing fuel inventories a bit lower than expected. But the overall price drop is expected to continue, and prices could fall much more in the weeks and months ahead.

Here's why:

For most of the past two years, oil prices have risen because the world's oil producers have struggled to keep pace with growing demand, particularly from China and India. Spare oil-production capacity grew so tight that market players feared that any disruption to oil production could create shortages.

Fear of disruption focused on fighting in Nigeria, escalating tensions over Iran's nuclear program, violence between Israel and Lebanon that might spread to oil-producing neighbors, and the prospect that hurricanes might topple oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Oil traders bet that such worrisome developments would drive up the future price of oil. Oil is traded in contracts for future delivery, and companies that take physical delivery of oil are just a small part of total trading. Large pension and commodities funds are the big traders and they're seeking profits. They've sunk $105 billion or more into oil futures in recent years, according to Verleger. Their bets that oil prices would rise in the future bid up the price of oil.

That, in turn, led users of oil to create stockpiles as cushions against supply disruptions and even higher future prices. Now inventories of oil are approaching 1990 levels.

But many of the conditions that drove investors to bid up oil prices are ebbing. Tensions over Israel, Lebanon and Nigeria are easing. The hurricane season has presented no threat so far to the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. peak summer driving season is over, so gasoline demand is falling.

With fear of supply disruptions ebbing, oil prices began sliding. With oil inventories high, refiners that turn oil into gasoline are expected to cut production. As refiners cut production, oil companies increasingly risk getting stuck with excess oil supplies. There's already anecdotal evidence of oil companies chartering tankers to store excess oil.

All this is turning financial markets increasingly bearish on oil.

"If we continue to build inventories, and if we have a warm winter like we had last winter, you could see a large fall in the price of oil," said Gary Pokoik, who manages Hedge Ventures Energy in Los Angeles, an energy hedge fund. "I think there is still a lot of risk in the market."

As it stands now, the recent oil-price slump has brought the national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline down to $2.59, according to the AAA motor club. In the Seattle area, prices per gallon have fallen to $2.856 currently from $3.071 a month ago, a decline of 7 percent, according to AAA.

Should oil traders fear that this downward price spiral will get worse and run for the exits by selling off their futures contracts, Verleger said, it's not unthinkable that oil prices could return to $15 or less a barrel, at least temporarily. That could mean gasoline prices as low as $1.15 per gallon.

Other experts won't guess at a floor price, but they agree that a race to the bottom could break out.

"The market may test levels here that are too low to be sustained," said Clay Seigle, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a consultancy in Boston.

On Monday, the oil-producing cartel OPEC hinted that if prices fall precipitously, OPEC members would cut production to lift them. But that would take time.

"That takes six to nine months. If we don't have a really cold winter here [creating a demand for oil], prices will fall. Literally, you don't know where the floor is," Verleger said. "In a market like this, if things start falling ... prices could take you back to the 1999 levels. It has nothing to do with production."

14 September 2006

Here Are a Few More Inconvenient Truths

One can wonder how a hanging chad in Florida might have changed history eight years ago ...

Would Al Gore have followed a retaliatory Afghan campaign with a blatantly offensive Iraqi invasion?

We'll never know. However, we can't say that about his latest cause.

These days, it isn't just Mr Gore's 'An Inconvenient Truth' documenting examples as to how our world is changing. The latest satellite photos and accompanying studies by no less than the redoubtable Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the Goddard Space Flight Center are presenting data that renders as unquestioned the issue of global warming.

The only topic of discussion now is whether this is a naturally cyclical phenomenon in Earth's climatic phases or whether mankind is hastening the process via overproduction of warming gases.

The early signs of change are now everywhere. Daniel Howden, Andrew Buncombe in Washington and Justin Huggler in Delhi, writing for London's Independent, recently listed a few of the more ominous items of evidence:

Europe

In Greenland the barley is growing for the first time since the Middle Ages. In Britain gardeners were warned this week that the English country garden will be a thing of the past within the next 20 years. In Italy skiers were told yesterday that melting glaciers will mean an end to their pastime unless they can get above 2,000 metres.

Even those enjoying the warmer temperatures in unpredictable bursts by venturing into the sea have been confronted by swarms of jellyfish, who have flourished in record numbers in Europe in the warmer waters. Those same waters are rising in Venice, prompting arguments over costly plans to seal off the lagoon from the sea.

The prospect of flooded squares on the scale of Venice's Piazza San Marco is driving plans to expand and reinforce the Thames flood barrier. In Holland the battle has been lost and 500,000 hectares, an area more than twice the size of greater London, will be strategically flooded instead and people will move to floating homes.

Last summer Spain and Portugal experienced cauldron-like temperatures and prolonged drought. This summer that drought has expanded into central and northern Europe.

Africa

The poorest continent has inevitably found itself on the frontline of climate change. Natural disasters, extreme weather floods and droughts have always been common in southern Africa but the severity of the wet and dry periods is intensifying with disastrous results.

A barrage of meteorological studies have found a pattern of increasing climatic variability and unpredictability. Throughout the Horn of Africa debilitating droughts this year have culled the region's wildlife and disrupted the migrations across the Masai Mara and the Serengeti.

Human populations have been devastated by the soaring temperatures and freak dry seasons. Herdsmen in the north of Kenya have been driven to war over the few cattle that have survived the drought.

The breaking of the drought has seen torrential flooding wreak havoc in Ethiopia's Omo Valley, home to numerous indigenous tribes. More than 800 people were killed last month and tens of thousands more made homeless after weeks of heavy rain following prolonged drought, which caused a number of rivers to burst their banks.

North America

In Alaska there has been millions of dollars of damage to buildings and roads caused by melting permafrost. The region has been blighted by the world's largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles, normally confined to warmer climes. Rising sea levels have forced the relocation of Inuit villages and polar bears have been drowning because of shrinking sea ice. The caribou population is in steep decline due to earlier spring and the west is suffering one of the worst droughts for 500 years.

In Louisiana about 1 million acres of wetlands have been lost to sea-level rise. In the north-west there has been dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in Glacier National Park and the South Cascade Glacier in Washington is at smallest size ever in the last 6,000 years. In the Rockies there has been a 16 per cent reduction in snowpack. Spring snow melt begins nine days earlier.

Hawaii has seen first large-scale coral bleaching. And scientists now believe that the strength of hurricanes that strike the south-east and the Caribbean is linked to climate change.

South America

Few images have offered such stark evidence of the advance of climate change as those of the dry bed of the Amazon river. Last year, the largest river in the world was reduced to a trickle by an unprecedented drought. This year sand banks have already appeared in the deltas of the Amazon and fears are rising that a drought cycle that was previously measured in multiples of decades may now be an annual event.

As the most important carbon sink in the world, the Amazon's impact on global patterns of rainfall is only now beginning to be fully understood and scientists warned in July that this extraordinary planetary air conditioner could be malfunctioning critically. The drying of the world's most biologically diverse forest has already been instrumental in a 1,000-fold increase in the extinction rate of plant and animal species, according to leading botanist Sir Ghillean Prance.

In the Peruvian Andes the alpacas that have for centuries provided indigenous farmers with a means of survival have died in cold snaps where temperatures plummeted to -30C. In the summer, melted glaciers revealed rock faces burnt red by their first contact with direct sunlight.

Australia

Al Gore's documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, twice singles out Australia for lagging behind the rest of the world on climate change. It has, along with the US, refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol. The Industry Minister, Ian Macfarlane, dismissed as "just entertainment" Mr Gore's film, which documents the scientific consensus that climate change in Australia has increased the duration and intensity of cyclones, and prompted a drop in rainfall in agricultural areas.

All around the region further evidence of climate change is to be found in the rising sea levels already starting to inundate Pacific islands, where the people, agricultural land, tourist resorts and infrastructure are concentrated on the coast. Temperature increases in the Pacific are killing off coral reefs. Some scientists say it is already too late to prevent their destruction.

Asia

Some of the most visible effects of climate change are in Asia. From the frozen wastes of Afghanistan, where the river bed in Kabul has become a dry rubbish tip, to south India, where thousands of farmers have killed themselves after successive years of drought wrecked their crops, global warming is a problem.

Most ominous of all, environmentalists are warning of disaster in the Himalayas, where glaciers are melting. Several glacier lakes have already burst in Nepal and Bhutan. The disappearance of the glaciers could dry up major rivers as far away as China, India and Vietnam.

12 September 2006

Afghanistan: Finish the Assignment

Journalist and photographer Ann Jones spent much of the last four years in Afghanistan working as a human rights researcher and women's advocate with international humanitarian agencies and teaching English to Kabul high school English teachers. She writes about her Afghan experience for the Nation magazine and notably in a new book Kabul in Winter: Life Without Peace in Afghanistan (Metropolitan Books, 2006) ...

Here is her first-hand account of the current situation in Afghanistan:

Remember when peaceful, democratic, reconstructed Afghanistan was advertised as the exemplar for the extreme makeover of Iraq? In August 2002, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was already proclaiming the new Afghanistan "a breathtaking accomplishment" and "a successful model of what could happen to Iraq." As everybody now knows, the model isn't working in Iraq. So we shouldn't be surprised to learn that it's not working in Afghanistan either.

The story of success in Afghanistan was always more fairy tale than fact -- one scam used to sell another. Now, as the Bush administration hands off "peacekeeping" to NATO forces, Afghanistan is the scene of the largest military operation in the history of that organization. Today's personal email brings word from an American surgeon in Kabul that her emergency medical team can't handle half the wounded civilians brought in from embattled provinces to the south and east. American, British, and Canadian troops find themselves at war with Taliban fighters -- which is to say "Afghans" -- while stunned NATO commanders, who hadn't bargained for significant combat, are already asking what went wrong.

The answer is a threefold failure: no peace, no democracy, and no reconstruction.

Doing Things Backward

Critics of American Afghan policy agree that the Bush administration, in its haste to take out Saddam's Iraq, did things backward. After bombing the Taliban into the boondocks in 2001, it set up a government without first making peace -- a scenario later to be repeated in Iraq.

Instead of pressing for peace negotiations among rival Afghan parties, the victorious Americans handed power to Islamists and militia commanders who had served as America's stand-in soldiers in its Afghan proxy war against the Soviet Union in the 1980s. Then the Bush administration staged elections for these candidates and touted the result as democracy. It also confined an International Security Assistance Force, made up largely of European troops, to the capital, creating an island of safety for the government, while dispatching warlords of its choice to hunt for Osama bin Laden in the countryside.

In the east and south -- that is, about half the country -- the Taliban never stopped fighting. Now, augmented by imported al-Qaeda fighters ("Arab-Afghans") and new tactics learned from the insurgency in Iraq (roadside bombs or IEDs, suicide bombing), Taliban forces are stronger than at any time since the United States "conquered" them in 2001. According to the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission, most Afghans have long favored a process of amnesty and reconciliation; and President Hamid Karzai recently called on the Bush administration to change course and stop killing Afghans. But administration policy, recently reaffirmed in Kabul by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, calls for a fight to the last Talib.

Predictably, public opinion has been turning steadily against the largely powerless central government, guarded in the capital by foreign forces. The insecurity endured by most Afghans -- the absence of peace -- is enough to make them give up hope in President Karzai, often jeeringly referred to as the "mayor of Kabul" or "assistant to the American Ambassador."

Historically Afghans have selected and followed strong leaders; they expect a leader to deliver security, jobs, special favors… something anyway. The Karzai government, confined to a self-serving American agenda that is often at odds with Afghan interests, has delivered nothing at all to the average Afghan, still living in abysmal poverty. In 2004, Afghans dutifully voted for Karzai as the instrument of American promises. By 2005, when Parliamentary elections were held, voters indicated that they were fed up with the same old candidates -- all those militia commanders and Islamist extremists -- and the same old hollow promises.

The sad part of the story is this: Despite the Bush administration's sham "peace" and fake "democracy," it might have made -- might still make -- a success of Afghanistan if only it delivered on that third big promise: to rebuild the bombed-out country. Most Afghans, after the dispersal of the Taliban, were full of hope and ready to work. The tangible benefits of reconstruction -- jobs, housing, schools, health-care facilities -- could have rallied them to support the government and turn that illusory "democracy" into something like the real thing. But reconstruction didn't happen. When NATO-led forces moved into the southern provinces this summer to keep the peace and continue "development," Lieutenant-General David Richards, British commander of the operation, seemed astonished to find that little or no development had so far taken place.

For that failure the U.S. is to blame. Until this year, the American-led Coalition assumed sole charge of "security" operations outside Kabul, but it never put enough troops on the ground to do the job. (Sound familiar?) As a result, aid workers (both international and Afghan) lost their lives, and non-governmental aid organizations (NGOs) withdrew to Kabul, or like Médecins Sans Frontières, left the country altogether. Private contractors who remained in the field found themselves regularly diverting project funds to "security," so that, as in Iraq, aid money poured into operations that belonged in the military budget.

A recent audit by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction found the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) using "an accounting shell game" to hide mammoth cost overruns on projects -- as high as 418% -- resulting partly from such security problems. There's every reason to believe that an audit of Afghanistan reconstruction by many of the same firms under contract to USAID would reveal similar accounting practices used for the same reason. Without peace there can be no security, and without security no development.

The Reconstruction Shell Game

But there's more to the story than that. To understand the failure -- and fraud -- of such reconstruction, you have to take a look at the peculiar system of American aid for international development. During the last five years, the U.S. and many other donor nations pledged billions of dollars to Afghanistan, yet Afghans keep asking: "Where did the money go?" American taxpayers should be asking the same question. The official answer is that donor funds are lost to Afghan corruption. But shady Afghans, accustomed to two-bit bribes, are learning how big-bucks corruption really works from the masters of the world.

A fact-packed report issued in June 2005 by Action Aid, a widely respected NGO, headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa, makes sense of the workings of that world. The report studied development aid given by all countries globally and discovered that only a small part of it -- maybe 40% -- is real. The rest is "phantom" aid; that is, the money never actually shows up in recipient countries at all.

Some of it doesn't even exist except as an accounting item, as when countries count debt relief or the construction costs for a fancy new embassy in the aid column. A lot of it never leaves home. Paychecks for American "experts" under contract to USAID, for example, go directly from the Agency to their American banks without ever passing through the to-be-reconstructed country. Much aid money, the report concludes, is thrown away on "overpriced and ineffective Technical Assistance," such as those very hot-shot American experts. And a big chunk of it is carefully "tied" to the donor nation, which means that the recipient is obliged to use the donated money to buy products from the donor country, even when -- especially when -- the same goods are available cheaper at home.

The U.S. easily outstrips other nations at most of these scams, making it second only to France as the world's biggest purveyor of phantom aid. Fully 47% of American development aid is lavished on overpriced technical assistance. By comparison, only 4% of Sweden's aid budget and only 2% of Luxembourg's and Ireland's goes to such assistance. As for tying aid to the purchase of donor-made products, Sweden and Norway don't do it all; neither do Ireland and the United Kingdom. But 70% of American aid is contingent upon the recipient spending it on American stuff, especially American-made armaments. Considering all these practices, Action Aid calculates that 86 cents of every dollar of American aid is phantom aid.

According to targets set years ago by the UN and agreed to by almost every country in the world, a rich country should give 0.7% of its national income in annual aid to poor ones. So far, only the Scandinavian countries, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg (with real aid at 0.65% of national income) even come close. At the other end of the scale, the U.S. spends a paltry 0.02% of national income on real aid, which works out to an annual contribution of $8.00 from every citizen of "the wealthiest nation in the world." (By comparison, Swedes kick in $193 per person, Norwegians $304, and the citizens of Luxembourg $357.) President Bush boasts of sending billions in aid to Afghanistan, but in fact we could do better by passing a hat.

The Bush administration often deliberately misrepresents its aid program for domestic consumption. Last year, for example, when the President sent his wife to Kabul for a few hours of photo ops, the New York Times reported that her mission was "to promise long-term commitment from the United States to education for women and children." Speaking in Kabul, Mrs. Bush pledged that the United States would give an additional $17.7 million to support education in Afghanistan. As it happened, that grant had previously been announced -- and it was not for Afghan public education (or women and children) at all, but to establish a brand-new, private, for-profit American University of Afghanistan catering to the Afghan and international elite. (How a private university comes to be supported by public taxpayer dollars and the Army Corps of Engineers is another peculiarity of Bush aid.)

Ashraf Ghani, the former finance minister of Afghanistan and president of Kabul University, complained, "You cannot support private education and ignore public education." But typically, having set up a government in Afghanistan, the U.S. stiffs it, preferring to channel aid money to private American contractors. Increasingly privatized, U.S. aid becomes just one more mechanism for transferring taxpayer dollars to the coffers of select American companies and the pockets of the already rich.

In 2001, Andrew Natsios, then head of USAID, cited foreign aid as "a key foreign policy instrument" designed to help other countries "become better markets for U.S. exports." To guarantee that mission, the State Department recently took over the formerly semi-autonomous aid agency. And since the aim of American aid is to make the world safe for American business, USAID now cuts in business from the start. It sends out requests for proposals to a short list of the usual suspects and awards contracts to those bidders currently in favor. (Election-time kickbacks influence the list of favorites.)

Sometimes it invites only one contractor to apply, the same efficient procedure that made Halliburton so notorious and profitable in Iraq. In many fields it "preselects vendors" by accepting bids every five years or so on an IQC -- that's an "Indefinite Quantities Contract." Contractors submit indefinite information about what they might be prepared to do in unspecified areas, should some more definite contract materialize; the winners become designated contractors who are invited to apply when the real thing comes along. USAID generates the real thing in the form of an RFP, a Request for Proposals, issued to the "pre-selected vendors" who then compete (or collaborate) to do -- in yet another country -- work dreamed up in Washington by theoreticians unencumbered by first hand knowledge of the hapless "target."

The Road to Taliban Land

The criteria by which contractors are selected have little or nothing to do with conditions in the recipient country, and they are not exactly what you would call transparent. Take the case of the Kabul-Kandahar Highway, featured on the USAID website as a proud accomplishment. In five years, it's also the only accomplishment in highway building -- which makes it one better than the Bush administration record in building power stations, water systems, sewer systems, or dams.

The highway was featured in the Kabul Weekly newspaper in March 2005 under the headline, "Millions Wasted on Second-Rate Roads." Afghan journalist Mirwais Harooni reported that even though other international companies had been ready to rebuild the highway for $250,000 per kilometer, the U.S.-based Louis Berger Group got the job at $700,000 per kilometer -- of which there are 389. Why? The standard American answer is that Americans do better work -- though not Berger which, at the time, was already years behind on another $665 million contract to build Afghan schools. Berger subcontracted to Turkish and Indian companies to build the narrow, two-lane, shoulderless highway at a final cost of about $1 million per mile; and anyone who travels it today can see that it is already falling apart.

Former Minister of Planning Ramazan Bashardost complained that when it came to building roads, the Taliban had done a better job; and he too asked, "Where did the money go?" Now, in a move certain to tank President Karzai's approval ratings and further endanger U.S. and NATO troops in the area, the Bush administration has pressured his government to turn this "gift of the people of the United States" into a toll road, charging each driver $20 for a road-use permit valid for one month. In this way, according to American experts providing highly paid technical assistance, Afghanistan can collect $30 million annually from its impoverished citizens and thereby decrease the foreign aid "burden" on the United States.

Is it any wonder that foreign aid seems to ordinary Afghans to be something only foreigners enjoy? At one end of the infamous highway, in Kabul, Afghans complain about the fancy restaurants where those experts, technicians, and other foreigners gather, men and women together, to drink alcohol, carry on, and plunge half-naked into swimming pools. They object to the brothels -- eighty of them by 2005 -- that house women trafficked in to serve the "needs" of foreign men. They complain that half the capital city still lies in ruins, that many people still live in tents, that thousands can't find jobs, that children go hungry, that schools and hospitals are overcrowded, that women in tattered burqas still beg in the streets and turn to prostitution, that children are kidnapped and sold into slavery or murdered for their kidneys or eyes. They wonder where the promised aid money went and what the puppet government can possibly do to make things better.

At the other end of the highway, in Kandahar city -- President Karzai's home town –- and in the southern provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Zabul, and Uruzgan, Taliban commander Mullah Dadullah is reported to have more than 12,000 men under arms and squads of suicide bombers at the ready. They ambush newly arrived NATO troops. The embattled British commander, Lieutenant-General Richards, recently issued a warning: "We need to realize that we could actually fail here."

The U.S. attacks the Taliban, as it did in 2001, with air power. (The Times of London reports that in May alone, U.S. planes flew an "astonishing" 750 bombing raids.) Every day brings new reports of NATO and Taliban combat casualties, and of "suspected" Taliban as well as civilians killed, long range, by American bombs.

In the meantime, the Taliban take control of villages; they murder teachers and blow up schools. U.S.-led drug eradication teams take control of villages and destroy the poppy crops of poor farmers. Caught as usual in the middle of warring factions, Afghans of the south and east long ago ceased to wonder where the money went. Instead they wonder who the government is. And what ever happened to "peace"

Copyright 2006 Ann Jones

11 September 2006

It's Time to Re-Focus the Fight Against Terror

In military terms, this decade may become known as the Age of Irony ...

It's mind-boggling that a very justifiable invasion of Afghanistan to neutralize the government that supported the group responsible for the attacks on America on 11 Sep has been muddied by policy follies elsewhere in the region, to the point where the justifiably ousted Taliban are now in the process of re-claiming their Afghan authority.

These reports have been filtering to the West for over a year. The Taliban were on the run five years ago. Now, their ranks are surging again --- thanks to recruits angered by American-led actions which make no sense to them or their culture --- and becoming more formidable than ever before.

This is an incredibly reprehensible development. The Taliban were and are the harborers of the criminals who caused so much death and destruction to innocents on 11 Sep. They have remained unbowed. How can the Western powers ever have taken their attention away from these people?

We've all heard the sage advice that "it's better to say nothing and let others think you're a fool than to open your mouth and prove it." It's safe to say that its military corollary --- "the threat of great military power can be more effective than the deployment of great military power" --- is just as wise in terms of deterrence. After all, it kept nuclear war at bay for almost half a century.

And to think it took a loosely associated band of assassins to ignite the proof of that point in spades.

While mortality and materiel are being wasted in Iraq, these international criminals have become emboldened. To the disaffected throughout the Middle East, they and their al-Qaeda accomplices have become twisted heroes, standing up to the most omnipresent fighting machines in the world today and getting away with it. Worse yet, Hezbollah has jumped on their bandwagon and won credibility within their culture, and Iran --- with its own version of extremism --- looks to be the new power broker in the region.

The most frustrating point of all is that, except for the most idealistic of anti-war activists, it's all too obvious to realize that the West is stuck. The American-led forces cannot just withdraw, as the political consequences in the region would no doubt be even more dire.

Their only sliver of hope is to re-trench in Afghanistan. The Taliban are brutal killers. It is not difficult to rally around a cause bent on pounding them back into the shadows from which they arose and then working toward eliminating that darkness. (Let's not forget that these so-called religious zealots are also openly in league with the opium lords there; what's not to dislike about re-eliminating this scenario?) This should again become the focal point of Western military policy. It's the only way to garner the political and moral support required for a successful campaign against the original criminals.

Yes, this re-focus would create more problems in Iraq, but what's the difference anymore between a pseudo-civil war there and the real thing? That country is segmenting itself, anyway. The problems there are too deeply rooted for outsiders to resolve in the short term, so they should adjust their policy to minimize their own casualties until Afghanistan can again be cured from the Taliban disease.

Once that happens, perhaps the West can attempt to resume the more ominous posture of a point-to-point threat rather than a spread-too-thin intruder. After all, five years of what's happening now is only making matters worse.

I cannot think of a more fitting tribute to those who died on 11 Sep than to keep the spotlight on those who killed them and make sure they cannot kill again.

10 September 2006

Feeding the Fire of Terrorism - Redux

Robert Fisk is another Middle East correspondent for the London Independent, with a sterling reputation for accuracy and incisiveness ...

Here is his contribution to the commemoration of the fifth anniversary of the day when the jets hit the towers:

As the West's "war on terror" burns across the Muslim world, one of Islam's most principled leaders -- the former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami -- issued a grave warning yesterday from the very heart of America, the country whose troops and allies are fighting Islamists across the Middle East in a war that is costing thousands of Muslim lives.

"The policies of the neo-conservatives have created a war that creates more extremists and radicals," he told The Independent in Chicago. "The events of 9/11 gave them this ability to create
fear and anxiety ... and to create new policies of their own and now events are creating an expansion of extremists on both sides. A struggle is under way to dominate this world multilaterally ... We are a witness to war - with suppression from one side and extremist reaction in the form of terror from the other."

Mr Khatami might appear an improbable figure in the breakfast room of one of Chicago's smartest hotels, dressed in his black turban and long gown, his spectacles giving him the appearance of a university don -- which he once was -- rather than the seer of Iran, a man whose demands for a civil society and democracy at home were overwhelmed by the ascetic clerics who surround the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Yet he is enormously important in the Sunni as well as the Shia Muslim worlds as a philosopher-scholar, which is probably why the Bush administration gave him a visa, and his message was the sharpest he has ever delivered to the Muslim world and the secular West.

The former president said: "We have to find ways to confront these people on both sides. We need public opinion to be influenced ... And now the neo-conservative policies have created this sort of war."

But Mr Khatami, who defended Iran's role in the nuclear crisis between the West and Tehran -- he
asked why Israel was allowed nuclear weapons while refusing to sign the nuclear non-proliferation pact -- did not spare the perpetrators of what he called "the inhumane terrorist attacks" of 11 September 2001. "I was one of the first officials to condemn this barbaric act ... this inferno would only intensify extremism and one-sidedness and would have no outcome except to retard justice and intellect and sacrifice righteousness and humanity," he said.

Addressing 15,000 American Muslims at the weekend, Mr Khatami also made a clear assault on the influence of Israel's political lobby in the US. "We are unfortunately witnessing the emergence of
policies that seek to confiscate public opinion in order to exploit all the grandeur of the nation and country of the United States ... policies that are the outcome of a point of view, that despite having no status in the US public arena as far as numbers are concerned, uses decisive lobby groups and influential centres to utilise the entirety of America's power and wealth to promote its own interest and to implant policies outside US borders that have no resemblance to the spirit of
Anglo-American civilisation and the aspirations of its Founding Fathers or its constitution, causing crisis after crisis in our world."

When he spoke of "the vast and all-encompassing presence of powers who express concern for the world but implement policies aimed at devouring the world," there was a sense of shock among his audience. They had not expected such an epic denunciation of US hegemony from a divine known for his compassion rather than his anger.

"Any popular or democratic change or transformation that is outside the realm of their influence is not acceptable," he said, "for they find it far more convenient to deal with non-nationalistic and non-popular trends and regimes rather than popular ones, who naturally tend to care about the welfare and the physical interests of their people."

Thus did Mr Khatami dispose of America's cry for "democracy" in the "new" Middle East.

Needless to say, his words were given scarcely a few seconds on America's major news channels. Mr Khatami's wisdom is not wanted in Washington.

07 September 2006

Terrorism: Is It a War or Constant Hazard?

Advertising campaigns are one thing, political campaigns are another ...

When we hear false claims in either, we know to dismiss the product's credibility.

We should do the same thing when violent conflict is inaccurately named.

A 'War on Terror?' Please. As long as extremism exists, political violence will be a fact of life.

So, the Bush Administration's overreaction to this era's Middle Eastern extremism --- by countering it with an extremism of its own --- has created a 'war' only in the broadest sense of the term. The reality is that they used the term 'war' to make their responses palatable to the American citizenry.

The result is that their accomplishments have been little, and at a staggering expense in both economy and mortality. Meanwhile, their enemy has succeeded in altering many aspects of our lives; ask anyone who's experienced air travel lately, for example.

As this so-called 'war' has reached the five-year mark, London's Independent has been running a series of reports about its effects. They've made interesting reading. Here is the recent assessment of their correspondents, Tom Coghlan (in Kabul) and Kim Sengupta:

Five years ago this week, the Taliban's al-Qa'ida allies made final preparations to launch devastating attacks on America that would precipitate the "war on terror," the US led invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent invasion of Iraq.

Far from ending terrorism, George Bush's tactics of using overwhelming military might to fight extremism appear to have rebounded, spawning an epidemic of global terrorism that has claimed an estimated 72,265 lives since 2001, most of them Iraqi civilians.

The rest, some 30,626, according to official US figures, have been killed in a combination of terror attacks and counter-insurgency actions by the US and its allies. The figures were compiled by the US based National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT).

A US led-invasion swept away the Taliban regime in a matter of weeks, and did the same to Saddam Hussein's Ba'ath Party in 2003, but far from bringing stability and democracy to Afghanistan and Iraq, the outcome has been one of constant warfare. Last weekend, hundreds of Nato troops, backed by warplanes and helicopter gunships, were involved in the offensive on the area, southwest of Kandahar, that has been a centre of Taliban resistance.

Nato said more than 200 Taliban fighters were killed in the fierce fighting in which four Canadian soldiers also died. Eighty Taliban fighters were captured.

The district where the Taliban leader, Mullah Omar, was born, south-west of Kandahar, is again under Taliban control, a situation mirrored across large swaths of the south of the country. The government of Hamid Karzai clings on to the cities of the south while Nato forces in Kandahar and Helmand are locked in an all-out war.

In Punjwai and Jerai districts south-west of Kandahar, as many as 1,500 Taliban fighters have been
holding off repeated attempts by Afghan and Canadian soldiers to dislodge them since May. Their resistance has marked a new phase in the growing Taliban insurgency, an evolution from the hit-and-run raids by groups of eight to 15 fighters that characterised the attacks in the south previously to large bodies of fighters taking and holding territory.

Operation Medusa, the latest attempt to dislodge them, began on Saturday and involves some 2,000 troops. Highway 1, which links Kandahar to Lashkargar, has been cut since June. Yesterday Nato forces placed a ban on civilian movement along the road as helicopters and aircraft together with artillery pounded suspected Taliban positions.

In Iraq, three and a half years after the invasion, the situation remains equally dire and the numbers of Iraqi casualtieshas soared by 51 per cent according to US figures. Some 3,000 civilians are now dying every month in Iraq the Pentagon says.

President Bush has shifted his approach in an effort to shore up faltering public support for the war. No longer does he stress the benefits of securing peace in Iraq, but rather he is laying out the peril of a failure.

Observers of the President say that in recent weeks his language has become increasingly grim as he details what he believes would be the consequences of US withdrawal. "We can allow the Middle East to continue on the course it was headed before September the 11th," he said in a speech last week. "And a generation from now, our children will face a region dominated by terrorist states and radical dictators armed with nuclear weapons. Or we can stop that from happening, by
rallying the world to confront the ideology of hate and give the people of the Middle East a future of hope."

Away from such rhetoric, the situation on the ground in Iraq only appears to be getting worse. According to a new, grim assessment by the Pentagon, Iraqi civilians are increasingly suffering as a result of the violence and chaos.

In recent months the numbers of Iraqi casualties ­ both civilians and security forces - has soared by 51 per cent. The deaths are the result of a spiral in sectarian clashes as well as an ongoing insurgency against the US and UK occupation that remains "potent and viable". The average number of attacks of all types now stands at around 800 a week.

"Although the overall number of attacks increased in all categories, the proportion of those attacks directed against civilians increased substantially," the Pentagon report said. "Death squads and terrorists are locked in mutually reinforcing cycles of sectarian strife, with Sunni and Shia extremists each portraying themselves as the defenders of their respective sectarian groups."

The report said in the period since the establishment of an Iraqi government in mid-May and 11 August, Iraqi civilian and security personnel have been killed at a rate of around 120 a day. This is an increase from around 80 a day between mid-February to mid-May. Two years ago the number stood at 30 a day. Calculated over a year, the most recent rate of killings would equal more than 43,000 Iraqi casualties.

The Pentagon report, Measuring Security and Stability in Iraq, added: " The core conflict in Iraq
changed into a struggle between Sunni and Shia extremists seeking to control key areas in Baghdad, create or protect sectarian enclaves, divert economic resources, and impose their own respective political and religious agendas."

While the Pentagon may seek to portray such sectarian violence as the biggest challenge, it admits that the anti-occupation insurgency remains strong.

Indeed other figures, released this summer by the US military, suggest attacks against US and Iraqi
forces had doubled since January. The figures showed that in July US forces encountered 2,625 roadside bombs, of which 1,666 exploded and 959 were disarmed. In January, 1,454 bombs exploded or were found. The figures suggested that the insurgency had strengthened despite the killing of senior al-Qa'ida fighter, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in June.

05 September 2006

Feeding the Fire of Terrorism

A favorite saying about the merits of being a funeral director is that 'they never run out of product' ...

It goes without saying that their counterparts in Iraq and Afghanistan are doing very well in recent times.

Ironically, the same saying --- with slight modifications --- has also proven to be accurate in the recruitment of extremists for violent activities. However, rather than being inevitable, this product is nurtured by factors which are totally avoidable.

Patrick Cockburn is an award-winning journalist and author who has reported extensively from Iraq, Afghanistan and Jordan. Recently, in London's Independent newspaper, he explained how the 'war on terror' has fuelled resentment of the West and brought new levels of death and destruction:

I have spent most of my time since 2001 in Afghanistan and Iraq. The reason for the rise of radical Islam is foreign occupation. Iraq had a secular tradition. Fanatical Islamic groups made little headway under Saddam Hussein not only because he persecuted them but because they had little popular support.

But the five million-strong Sunni community in Iraq almost entirely supported armed resistance to the US occupation. Fanatical Islamic groups were for the first time operating in a friendly environment.

At one moment in the past year the many Sunni insurgent groups debated whether they should try to hammer out a common platform. They eventually decided that their differences were too deep for unity on most issues but they were all agreed on opposition to the occupation and they concluded this was sufficient to hold them together.

One of the most extraordinary aspects of Tony Blair's analysis of militant Islam is his blindness to the extent to which foreign invasion and occupation has radicalised the region and legitimised militant Islam. For instance this weekend a group of Palestinian students in Jerusalem were debating the impact of the war in Lebanon on Palestinian fortunes. The issue which most interested them was the reason why Hizbollah was able to withstand Israeli attacks compared with the failure of secular nationalist movements such as Fatah, led by Yasser Arafat for so many years.

Across the Middle East secularist and nationalist regimes are being discredited by the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon. Most governments in the region are corrupt patronage machines backed by brutal security services. They are close to the US but have little influence over it. All are becoming unstable in a way not seen since the 1960s.

The attack by a lone gunman in Jordan holds another dangerous message. At the end of 2001 I was able to stroll through the streets of Kabul and Kandahar without fear of being attacked. I drove between the two cities in a taxi. The same was true in Baghdad under Saddam Hussein and during the first months of the occupation. In 2003 I drove down to Basra in southern Iraq and up to Mosul in the far north without incident.

If I tried to repeat any of these journeys in Iraq or Afghanistan today I would certainly be killed. The rest of the Middle East is becoming more dangerous by the day.

The real reason of the increasing violence in the Middle East is the return to imperial control and foreign occupation half a century after the European colonial empires were broken up. This is the fuel for Islamic militancy. This is why fanatical but isolated Islamic groups can suddenly win broader support. Governments allied to the US and Britain have no legitimacy. The attempts by America and Britain to crush Islamic militancy across the Middle East are making sure it will become stronger.

03 September 2006

A Plan to Escape Global Warming

Steve Connor of London's Independent reports on an idea that truly deserves more exposure and consideration ...

A Nobel Prize-winning scientist has drawn up an emergency plan to save the world from global
warming, by altering the chemical makeup of Earth's upper atmosphere. Professor Paul Crutzen, who won a Nobel Prize in 1995 for his work on the hole in the ozone layer, believes that political attempts to limit man-made greenhouse gases are so pitiful that a radical contingency plan is needed.

In a polemical scientific essay to be published in the August issue of the journal Climate Change, he says that an "escape route" is needed if global warming begins to run out of control.

Professor Crutzen has proposed a method of artificially cooling the global climate by releasing
particles of sulphur in the upper atmosphere, which would reflect sunlight and heat back into space. The controversial proposal is being taken seriously by scientists because Professor Crutzen has a proven track record in atmospheric research.

A fleet of high-altitude balloons could be used to scatter the sulphur high overhead, or it could even be fired into the atmosphere using heavy artillery shells, said Professor Crutzen, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Germany.

The effect of scattering sulphate particles in the atmosphere would be to increase the reflectance, or "albedo," of the Earth, which should cause an overall cooling effect.

Such "geo-engineering" of the climate has been suggested before, but Professor Crutzen goes much further by drawing up a detailed model of how it can be done, the timescales involved, and the costs.

In his forthcoming scientific paper, Professor Crutzen emphasises that the best way of averting global climate disaster is for countries to cut back significantly on their emissions of greenhouse
gases, notably carbon dioxide produced by burning oil, gas and coal. But in the absence of such measures, and with the average global temperature expected to rise more than 3C this century, there may soon come a time when more extreme measures have to be considered, he said.

"If sizeable reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will not happen and temperatures rise rapidly, then climatic engineering, as presented here, is the only option available to rapidly reduce temperature rises and counteract other climatic effects," Professor Crutzen said.

"Such a modification could also be stopped on short notice, if undesirable and unforeseen side-effects become apparent, which would allow the atmosphere to return to its prior state within a few years," he said.

Such an idea is so controversial that some scientists opposed its publication in the peer-reviewed scientific press, fearing that it may encourage the view that it is easier to treat the symptoms rather than the causes of climate change.

Professor Crutzen, however, argues that the "grossly disappointing" international political response to the necessity of cuts in greenhouse gas emissions means that it should no longer be considered taboo to think about geo-engineering of the climate.

"Importantly, its possibility should not be used to justify inadequate climate policies, but merely to create a possibility to combat potentially drastic climate heating," he said. "The very best would be if emissions of the greenhouse gases could be reduced. Currently, this looks like a pious wish."

His plan is modelled partly on the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991, when thousands of tons of sulphur were ejected into the atmosphere causing global temperatures to fall.

Pinatubo generated sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere which cooled the Earth by 0.5C on average in the following year. The sulphate particles did this by acting like tiny mirrors, preventing a portion of incoming sunlight from reaching the ground.

Professor Crutzen calculated that a relatively small amount of sulphur could cause similar cooling if it was released at high enough altitudes into the stratosphere, rather than at the lower altitude of the troposphere. Weather balloons or even artillery shells could be used to carry the sulphur.

"Although climate cooling by sulphate aerosols also occurs in the troposphere, the great advantage
of placing reflective particles in the stratosphere is their long residence time of about one to two years, compared to a week in the troposphere," Professor Crutzen said.

"It may be possible to manufacture a special gas that is only processed photochemically in the stratosphere to yield sulphate," he said. Such a compound should be non-toxic, insoluble in water, non-reactive, and have a relatively short half-life of about 10 years.

It would cost between $25bn and $50bn - or about $25 or $50 per head in the developed world - to launch sufficient sulphate to last for up to two years.

But this high cost should be measured against the much bigger costs of environmental disasters, such as coastal flooding, caused by global warming, he said.

Side-effects could be an increase in the destruction of the ozone layer and whitening of the sky, although the particles would make sunsets and sunrises more spectacular, he said.

Other 'geo-engineering' ideas

* Reflecting mirrors:

Earth's natural reflectance or "albedo" reflects about 30 per cent of sunlight back into space. Increasing the albedo could be done by building giant unfolding mirrors in space, laying reflecting film in the deserts, or floating white plastic islands in the ocean to mimic reflective effect of sea ice.

* Swallowing up CO2:

Marine plankton absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which the microbes need for photosynthesis. The growth of plankton is limited by the relatively small amounts of iron in the sea. Scientists have conducted experiments on boosting plankton by throwing iron filings into the sea.